Cardinal Pell backs Plimer against the Pope and the Catholic Church

As discussed in the Sydney Morning Herald and numerous other places, Cardinal George Pell has made a bit of a fool of himself on the record in the Australian Parliament's primary record, Hansard. In line with his numerous pronouncements that global warming is not a threat (such as here), Pell wrote to the Senate to immortalise his lack of understanding of climate science and his faith in a book of 'science fiction' that was penned by a chap called Ian Plimer.

Tim Lambert has published Pell's letter and the response from Dr Greg Ayers of the Bureau of Meteorology. Dr Ayers explains to the Senate Committee, why Ian Plimer's book is not credible.

Pell is in conflict with the Pope on the matter of global warming and has probably been in conflict with the Vatican for twenty years or more, on human welfare and environmental matters generally. Here is an excerpt from Pope Benedict XVI World Peace Day address last year (which refers also to concerns in 1990 expressed by Pope John Paul II):

4. Without entering into the merit of specific technical solutions, the Church is nonetheless concerned, as an “expert in humanity”, to call attention to the relationship between the Creator, human beings and the created order. In 1990 John Paul II had spoken of an “ecological crisis” and, in highlighting its primarily ethical character, pointed to the “urgent moral need for a new solidarity”.[7] His appeal is all the more pressing today, in the face of signs of a growing crisis which it would be irresponsible not to take seriously. Can we remain indifferent before the problems associated with such realities as climate change, desertification, the deterioration and loss of productivity in vast agricultural areas, the pollution of rivers and aquifers, the loss of biodiversity, the increase of natural catastrophes and the deforestation of equatorial and tropical regions? Can we disregard the growing phenomenon of “environmental refugees”, people who are forced by the degradation of their natural habitat to forsake it – and often their possessions as well – in order to face the dangers and uncertainties of forced displacement? Can we remain impassive in the face of actual and potential conflicts involving access to natural resources? All these are issues with a profound impact on the exercise of human rights, such as the right to life, food, health and development.

Click for the Pope's World Day of Peace message - 1 January 2010

And the US Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) is as strong or stronger on the issue than the Pope and the Vatican, and writes:

The U.S. Catholic bishops have declared, "At its core, global climate change is not about economic theory or political platforms, nor about partisan advantage or interest group pressures. It is about the future of God's creation and the one human family. It is about protecting both 'the human environment' and the natural environment." (Global Climate Change: A Plea for Dialogue, Prudence and the Common Good, United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, 2001, p.1).

In parishes, dioceses and other Catholic organizations, we encourage efforts to bring about a discussion on climate change that is civil and constructive, that invokes the virtue of prudence in seeking solutions, and that is more responsive to the needs of the poor, both here in the United States and abroad. As Catholics, we have a unique opportunity and responsibility to make a difference in addressing the potential impacts of global climate change, particularly on those least able to bear its burdens.

The USCCB urges specific action at the personal, state, national and global level; including at the national level:

The U.S. Catholic bishops are urging that any legislative action on climate change include provisions that: (1) ease the burden on poor people; (2) offer some relief for workers who may be displaced because of climate change policies; and (3) promote the development and use of alternate renewable and clean-energy resources, including the transfer of such technologies and technical assistance that may be appropriate and helpful to developing countries in meeting the challenges of global climate change.
Write to your Senators and Representatives in Congress and let them know that you care about climate change and support action on a national level that includes the three key priorities above. For background information on the issue, go to http://www.usccb.org/sdwp/ejp/climate.

Keep up to date on new science and technology relating to climate change by checking the websites of the National Academies of Sciences (http://www.nasonline.org) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (http://www.ipcc.ch/).

Cardinal Pell backs Plimer against the Pope and the Catholic Church

As discussed in the Sydney Morning Herald and numerous other places, Cardinal George Pell has made a bit of a fool of himself on the record in the Australian Parliament's primary record, Hansard. In line with his numerous pronouncements that global warming is not a threat (such as here), Pell wrote to the Senate to immortalise his lack of understanding of climate science and his faith in a book of 'science fiction' that was penned by a chap called Ian Plimer.

Tim Lambert has published Pell's letter and the response from Dr Greg Ayers of the Bureau of Meteorology. Dr Ayers explains to the Senate Committee, why Ian Plimer's book is not credible.

Pell is in conflict with the Pope on the matter of global warming and has probably been in conflict with the Vatican for twenty years or more, on human welfare and environmental matters generally. Here is an excerpt from Pope Benedict XVI World Peace Day address last year (which refers also to concerns in 1990 expressed by Pope John Paul II):

4. Without entering into the merit of specific technical solutions, the Church is nonetheless concerned, as an “expert in humanity”, to call attention to the relationship between the Creator, human beings and the created order. In 1990 John Paul II had spoken of an “ecological crisis” and, in highlighting its primarily ethical character, pointed to the “urgent moral need for a new solidarity”.[7] His appeal is all the more pressing today, in the face of signs of a growing crisis which it would be irresponsible not to take seriously. Can we remain indifferent before the problems associated with such realities as climate change, desertification, the deterioration and loss of productivity in vast agricultural areas, the pollution of rivers and aquifers, the loss of biodiversity, the increase of natural catastrophes and the deforestation of equatorial and tropical regions? Can we disregard the growing phenomenon of “environmental refugees”, people who are forced by the degradation of their natural habitat to forsake it – and often their possessions as well – in order to face the dangers and uncertainties of forced displacement? Can we remain impassive in the face of actual and potential conflicts involving access to natural resources? All these are issues with a profound impact on the exercise of human rights, such as the right to life, food, health and development.

Click for the Pope's World Day of Peace message - 1 January 2010

And the US Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) is as strong or stronger on the issue than the Pope and the Vatican, and writes:

The U.S. Catholic bishops have declared, "At its core, global climate change is not about economic theory or political platforms, nor about partisan advantage or interest group pressures. It is about the future of God's creation and the one human family. It is about protecting both 'the human environment' and the natural environment." (Global Climate Change: A Plea for Dialogue, Prudence and the Common Good, United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, 2001, p.1).
In parishes, dioceses and other Catholic organizations, we encourage efforts to bring about a discussion on climate change that is civil and constructive, that invokes the virtue of prudence in seeking solutions, and that is more responsive to the needs of the poor, both here in the United States and abroad. As Catholics, we have a unique opportunity and responsibility to make a difference in addressing the potential impacts of global climate change, particularly on those least able to bear its burdens.

The USCCB urges specific action at the personal, state, national and global level; including at the national level:

The U.S. Catholic bishops are urging that any legislative action on climate change include provisions that: (1) ease the burden on poor people; (2) offer some relief for workers who may be displaced because of climate change policies; and (3) promote the development and use of alternate renewable and clean-energy resources, including the transfer of such technologies and technical assistance that may be appropriate and helpful to developing countries in meeting the challenges of global climate change.

Write to your Senators and Representatives in Congress and let them know that you care about climate change and support action on a national level that includes the three key priorities above. For background information on the issue, go to http://www.usccb.org/sdwp/ejp/climate.

Keep up to date on new science and technology relating to climate change by checking the websites of the National Academies of Sciences (http://www.nasonline.org) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (http://www.ipcc.ch/).

The ecology crisis and shrinking biodiversity in a warming world

I'm putting together a few links on ecology and biodiversity. Most nature lovers will have observed changes in their local flora and fauna in recent years. There will be many more changes over coming years as species are affected by the altered atmosphere and the warming earth, which will have multiple and cascading effects affecting food webs and local habitats. Here is some further reading on the subject.

Jeff Harvey responded to Eli Rabett's request for reading material and suggested places to start learning about the biodiversity crisis. Dr Harvey recommends the Millenium Assessment Reports as a starting point.

Bart has posted some useful links on the topic, and the thread includes some excellent posts by Jeff Harvey and Bernard J, though the thread got hijacked further along the way. There is discussion of the Amazon, on inter-relationships and how broken links will have a cascading effect; and the notion of 'extinction debt' and the lingering inevitable death of species.

My attention was drawn to this observation by Bernard J., because it relates to the mountains I love and look on every day from my window, (although I am not aware of any Gondwanan Nothofagus within walking distance of our place):

In Australia one good example is the remnant Gondwanan Nothofagus forest associations clinging to the tops of the highest mountain peaks along the Great Dividing Range. Whilst they might be able to persist in warm temperatures, they do not thrive as well as the pyrophilic eucalptus associations at lower altitude. Even slight warming increases the frequency of fire, and the capacity for eucalypts to regenerate more quickly than the Nothofagus will see the latter continue to retreat to the apices in the face of advancing eucalyptus forest, and then blink out when there is no more mountain left. This will remove thousands of species unque to the Nothofagus associations, simply because of the vulnerability of one foundation species.

This post on climate change and extinction, from Kate at ClimateSight, is worth reading and reading again. In it she looks at how past extinction events provide ample warning of the disaster we face.

SkepticalScience.com has a post about extinctions, written by Barry Brook.

Some biodiversity blogs are listed on the Pimm Group website.

And for those of us who have recently experienced extreme heat, and wondered if we and other species would survive very high temperatures and humidity if it lasted for more than a few days, the answer is probably not, as discussed here.

An illustration of what happens when one part of the food chain is seriously diminished in numbers, is discussed in this recent article about the current reduction in the number of larger fish in the ocean.

Some scientists are proposing intervention by eliminating specific threatened species for the greater good of many more species. A topic that would be highly controversial in the public arena, one imagines.

On morals and ethics and climate science

Both 'ethics' and 'morality' have their roots in a word for 'customs', the former being a derivative of the Greek term from which we get 'ethos', and the latter from the Latin root that gives us 'mores', a word still used sometimes to describe the customs of a people. - Peter Singer.

The recent behaviour of O'Donnell et al (referred to in my previous post) raises issues of morals and ethics. Even when a person has a different set of morals, it is expected that they abide by professional ethics. If a person seeks to publish in a professional journal, then it is expected that they will abide by the code of ethics of that profession, even if it is not explicitly stated in the policies of said journal.

For example, in the case of a journal that has a policy of anonymous review of papers submitted for publication it would be expected that the norm is to not publicly reveal the names of those reviewers even if they became known to the authors of the paper. (Two of the authors who each published posts naming and personally attacking Prof Steig sought and received written confirmation that naming reviewers is a breach of professional ethics. The author who wrote the attack stated that he did this despite making a personal commitment to Prof Steig that he would not reveal his name.)

Scientists rarely vilify other scientists on the basis of differing professional views. As individuals, scientists might express strongly their personal view of the behaviour and/or opinions expressed by others, but when it comes to discussing differences in the science itself, they are almost invariably polite in public. They argue the merits of the science rather than the attributes of the person, as in this example.

As far as I am aware, all professions have a similar code of behaviour. For example, it is rare to find a doctor criticising another doctor (which is one reason why it can be difficult to press for medical malpractice). In my own profession, to criticise a competitor to a client would be considered very bad form. The way around this, when one is asked by a client for an opinion about a competitor not held in high regard, is to suggest also considering 'xyz' individual or firm and refer to their experience (without criticising the less-than-adequate competitor). This allows one to to take account of one's responsibility to the client while complying with the professional code of ethics.

On science blogs, scientists commonly do exactly that. For example, a query as to why scientist xxx is considered 'wrong' would more commonly elicit a referral to papers expressing a different finding rather than a retort such as 'because they are a ning-nong'. (The reference to evidence is how scientists typically respond in public. Non-scientists might use the 'ning-nong' retort! And one might presume that between themselves in private conversation, scientists are not averse to the 'ning nong' retort either.)

Owners of blogs that cater to climate change deniers and delayers (denier chums) often have no compunction at all about personal vilification of climate scientists. Because they are unable to argue against the scientific facts, many people seem to think the only option they have is to personally attack specific scientists, often even resorting to telling lies about them. Such behaviour should never be tolerated, regardless of one's personal 'beliefs'.

Deniers slam the GATE on deniers

Deniers and denier chums seem to be doing their best to destroy any semblance of credibility they might have hoped for among gullible members of the public. Hopefully their latest shonky tactics backfire and they sink into oblivion sooner rather than later.

ClimateGATE: First denier shonkiness was shown up after their unfounded 'interpretations' of stolen emails, which were subject to several reviews in the USA and in the UK by eminent persons who concluded that not only were these allegations without any basis, but that the scientists had done diligent and critically important work over decades, informing the world of the dangers of greenhouse gas emissions.

LisbonGATE: Recently deniers and their chums organised what was erroneously titled a 'reconciliation' conference, in which they sought legitimacy by inviting 'prominent' climate scientists to discuss matters such as the purported 'medieval warm period' and 'ice'! The reconciliation efforts included presentation of a t-shirt with climate science going into a trashcan, and false reporting in the press of the contents of an email from Dr Gavin Schmidt, in which he declined the invitation to attend the workshop.

O'DonnellGATE: Maybe in an attempt to deflect attention away from the disastrous Lisbongate, within a day or so numerous denier websites published erroneous allegations of impropriety by a climate scientist, as alleged by a non-scientist whose work was published in a peer reviewed climate journal. The 'gate' part is apt, because not only did the offender publish reviewers comments, but named the anonymous reviewer and incorrectly described the actions of said reviewer - all in a riot of colourful language on several denier blogs as well as referring his readers to inaccurate allegations in the mainstream press.

Another perspective on O'Donnellgate can be found in this article, written before O'Donnell and co lost any pretense at decorum, and titled:
Climate Skeptic Refutes Self, Confirms Antarctica Warming

It's not only warming in West Antarctica, on the east flights were stopped to Casey in Eastern Antarctica earlier this summer because of the 'heat wave'.

It is clear that deniers and denier chums have no interest in facts about climate. All they seek to do is try to impugn the integrity of climate scientists, create doubt and foment outrage and denial that we all share responsibility for the weather disasters we're suffering, albeit not equally. Because their attacks on facts are so easily shown to be false, their current tactic is to libel prominent scientists one by one. At the rate they are going, in about 10,000 years they will have libelled everyone currently working in climate science. Not sure how they will keep up with new scholars entering the field.

Meanwhile it looks as if the world is now on the downhill side of peak oil, weather disasters are too numerous to report and little is happening to address the issue. Indeed, in the USA, Republicans are attempting to increase greenhouse gas emissions substantially.

Yasi moving south

Here is Yasi as it moves down south three days later, courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology.

Yasi extends its influence

Down here in north eastern Victoria we were warned to expect flash floods in the next couple of days. The rain has already begun, accompanied by thunder and lightning.

Here are some time lapse graphics from the Bureau of Meteorology andNOAA showing how Yasi is already extending its influence right down to the south east corner of Australia, more than 2,000 km south of where the eye of Yasi crossed the coastline in Queensland this morning. The warm wet air from Yasi is hitting the air mass coming across from the south west and the low is expected to sit for a couple of days, dumping up to 100mm water and maybe causing flooding here for the third time this summer, with the ground already well saturated.

Summers here are meant to be mostly dry. With all this rain and humidity the crops are getting diseased with mildew and fungus. At least those that haven't been destroyed by intense rain or washed away in floods.

It's hot and sticky tonight. This morning we had the low lying mist typical of winter, except it was much hotter.

Yasi continues to damage, even as it breaks up

UPDATE 8:30 pm Thurs 3 Feb: The rains that were supposed to hit us in north eastern Victoria are already arriving, accompanied by thunder and lightning as Yasi joins the air masses coming in from the south west.

Yasi is expected to start to break up soon. It is now a Category 1 cyclone, expected to form a tropical low over the next few hours.

The TC Yasi system is continuing to bring rains to the Far North Queensland coast, inland Queensland, the Northern Territory and South Australia.

Tropical Queensland is suffering intense wind and excess rain in the wet season up north. We in north eastern Victoria have just received rain from the remnants of TC Anthony, the cyclone that hit the north Queensland coast a few days ago while Yasi was forming.

Summer is the predominately dry season down in the south of Australia, but not this season - which is causing damage beyond the flooded areas with diseases spreading through crops because of the unseasonal humidity. In the next couple of days we expect to get intense rain from the outer rings of Yasi as it combines with air moving up from the south. We may get our third (in some parts our fourth) lot of flooding for the summer with very heavy rains on already sodden soils at a time when it should be mostly dry, and many crops would otherwise be getting close to harvest.

Queensland is not the only state to suffer from excess water. It has suffered enormous damage recently. Victorians are also suffering with about 1/3 of the state under water that spread up to 40 km wide, with some towns submerged under water for more than a week and totally cut off for even longer. Parts of Western Australia and Tasmania have had devastating floods.

We don't know exactly the situation across the rest of Australia - the media is focused on Queensland. I doubt there will be much notice taken of the roads and bridges that have yet to be repaired from floods in early summer or the January floods or the coming floods. This is understandable, given the enormous job ahead of those in popular populated parts of Queensland and the spectacular circumstances of the Queensland disasters.

Still, spare a thought for those who cannot travel easily between towns and rural areas across parts of Victoria and those whose livelihoods have been destroyed or seriously harmed in Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia. And how the damage across Australia will affect the economy and the lives of Australians everywhere.

Welcome to a warmer world.

BBC Horizon - Scientists Under Attack - update

Here is a better quality video of the BBC Horizon featuring Sir Paul Nurse, President of the Royal Society. It is a single video on a fast server and much improved definition (click the full screen option for improved viewing).

Note: the YouTube version is no longer available. You can watch this on the BBC here.

Current weather emergencies in Australia

The ABC website lists the current emergencies relating to weather events.  The entire eastern half of the huge state of Queensland in northern Australia, the western half of Victoria in the south east of Australia and important areas of Western Australia are badly affected by floods and cyclones.  Eastern Victoria and south western Western Australia have been affected by bushfires, which, while burning homes and large areas of land, are not significant enough to be listed on this page: